Current Affairs 11 November 2024

General Studies Paper I: Impacts of Declining Population
Syllabus: Population and Associated Issues
Source: The Hindu

Context:

India is experiencing a demographic shift, marked by falling fertility rates and a rapidly aging population in many states, especially in the south. Policymakers are grappling with the socio-economic and political implications of this transition.

Present Demographic Status in India:

• Declining Fertility Rates:
  • National average: 2.0, below the replacement level of 2.1.
  • Southern states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala report even lower fertility rates (1.4-1.5).
  • States like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh have fertility rates above 2.5.
• Aging Population:
  • Senior citizens in India: 10.1% in 2021, expected to rise to 15% by 2036 (UNFPA).
  • Kerala: Projected to have a 22.8% elderly population by 2036.
  • States like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Himachal Pradesh are facing high old-age dependency ratios.
• Old-Age Dependency Ratio:
  • Kerala: 26.1%
  • Tamil Nadu: 20.5%
  • Bihar: 7.7%

Impacts of Declining Population:

Positive Impacts:

• Reduced Strain on Resources: Slower population growth alleviates pressure on infrastructure, natural resources, and basic services.
• Increased Per Capita Resources: Smaller populations allow for a better distribution of resources per individual.
• Environmental Benefits: Reduced demand for energy, water, and land leads to a lower ecological footprint.

Negative Impacts:

• Economic Slowdown: A declining working-age population reduces productivity and GDP growth. This decline affects sectors dependent on youth demand, such as education, entertainment, and sports.
• Federal Issues: Uneven population growth could disrupt the federal structure, especially as the freeze on Parliamentary seats expires in 2026. States with declining populations, like Tamil Nadu and Kerala, are expected to lose seats.
• Higher Healthcare Costs: An aging population increases the demand for geriatric care and raises healthcare expenses.
• Labor Shortage: A shrinking workforce impacts industries, services, and agriculture, causing productivity bottlenecks.
• Social Security Challenges: Fewer contributors to pension systems put pressure on resources for elderly care.
• Geopolitical Risks: A declining youth population may weaken national defense capabilities, making the country more vulnerable to external threats.

Case Studies:

• India’s Population Distribution: A study by James and Kriti predicts that Uttar Pradesh will gain 12 seats, followed by Bihar (10), while states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala will lose seats due to their falling population share.
• Japan’s Housing Crisis: Japan faces a housing crisis with over nine million vacant homes due to low birth rates and an aging population, affecting even urban centers like Tokyo. This demographic shift threatens economic vibrancy and increases urban decay, signaling a need for urgent global attention.

Way Ahead:

• Pro-Natalist Policies: Encourage childbearing through gender-equitable policies, such as parental leave, affordable childcare, and workplace flexibility.
• Leverage Migration: Attract and retain economic migrants to balance demographic gaps and meet labor demands.
• Extend Working Lifespan: Develop policies that allow for delayed retirement and retraining older workers to remain economically active.
• Strengthen Social Security: Establish robust pension systems and healthcare frameworks to support the aging population.
• Boost Productivity with Technology: Invest in automation, AI, and robotics to address labor shortages and enhance operational efficiency.

Conclusion:

As India transitions into an ageing society, proactive policies are crucial for harnessing demographic opportunities and mitigating challenges. Balancing fertility rates, improving social security, and ensuring economic stability will be key to sustaining India’s growth trajectory.

Previous Year Question

• Discuss the main objectives of Population Education and point out the measures to achieve them in India in detail.
  (UPSC-2021)
• “Empowering women is the key to control the population growth.” Discuss.
  (UPSC-2019)
• Critically examine whether growing population is the cause of poverty or poverty is the main cause of population increase in India.
  (UPSC-2015)